The Martingale System

Number of losses in a row	Bet size using the Martingale
1	$2
2	$4
3	$8
4	$16
5	$32
6	$64
7	$128
8	$256
9	$512

It might seem impossible to bet on black 9 times in a row and never hit. If it does, then you need to read the next section about the gambler's fallacy.

What is the gambler's fallacy, and how does it apply to the Martingale system?

The gambler's fallacy is the myth that a certain result becomes "due" if it hasn't happened in a long time. In almost all betting situations, just because something has happened several times in a row does not mean that the alternative has a greater chance of happening next.

For example, a roulette ball lands on red a little over 47% of the time on an American roulette wheel. If the ball has landed on red 8 times in a row, what is the chance of it landing on red on the 9th spin of the roulette wheel?

If you answered anything other than "a little over 47%", then you're committing the gambler's fallacy.

Who came up with the Martingale system?

We don't know, but according to the Wikipedia, the Martingale system became popular at roulette tables in 18th century France. The French do love roulette, so we're not surprised that the most popular roulette betting system had its origins in France.

Is the Martingale system good for anything?

Sure it is. The Martingale system will usually result in quite a few small wins eventually followed by a devastating loss. That's as entertaining a way to play a negative expectation as any, we suppose. As long as you don't have the foolish notion that the Martingale system is actually going to put the odds in your favor, it's as good a strategy as any.

Where else can I read about the Martingale system on the Internet?

This page covers the basics of why the Martingale system doesn't work and never has worked pretty well, but if you want to read more confirmation of how the Martingale system of betting doesn't work, check out some of the following pages:

• The Martingale system as it applies to craps - The article explains how to use the Martingale system while playing craps, and it also explains why it's not a good long term strategy. Their answer to "does the Martingale system work?" is "No, not really. Maybe in the short run."

• The Martingale System as it applies to blackjack - Blackjack Tactics explains the Martingale system as it applies to blackjack, and it also includes links to several other betting systems that people apply to blackjack. Their answer to the question, "does the Martingale system work?" is also short and simple; it's "No."

• The Martingale System and other roulette betting systems - Another look at various betting systems that people try to apply to roulette games, including the Martingale and the d'Alembert betting system. Roulette Hero answers the question about whether or not the Martingale system works is a resounding "no".

• Is Using the Martingale System For Roulette Illegal? - This is a page from Yahoo Questions about whether or not it's illegal to use the Martingale system when playing roulette. It's a seemingly naive question, and the "best answer" explains in some detail why he thinks that the Martingale system is the worst possible betting strategy for roulette. Yahoo Answers best answer to the question, "does the Martingale system work?" is "No."

• Would the Martingale system work if you had an infinite bankroll and no upper betting limit? - This is a discussion at the Two Plus Two poker forums. They're pretty mathematical over there at Two Plus Two, and they don't mind tackling theoretical and hypothetical questions like this one. Two Plus Two's answer to "does the Martingale system work?" is "Yes, but only if you have an infinite bankroll and no upper betting limit, both of which are never going to happen."

• The Martingale System at Michael Bluejay's VegasClick - Michael Bluejay explains subjects like the Martingale system in a really clear and entertaining manner. The thesis of his entire article is that the Martingale system does improve your chances of winning in the short term. It's an interesting perspective, and I wouldn't dream of arguing with someone as smart as Bluejay about it. Bluejay's short answer to "does the Martingale system work?" is "Sorta, but not really."

• The Martingale System and Other Betting Systems from the Wizard of Odds - Michael Shackleford, the Wizard of Odds, has plenty of opinions about gambling and betting systems, including the Martingale system. He's interested in long-term mathematical expectation, so his perspective on the subject is a little bit different from Michael Bluejay's perspective. It's still well worth reading though. (Shackleford also writes about this specific betting system here: Ask the Wizard - The Martingale system. His short answer to "does the Martingale system work?" is "No."

• The Martingale Betting System article in the Wikipedia - All of the Wikipedia articles are written by volunteers, and the only vetting process for any information that gets added is done by the community at large. The information at the Wikipedia usually winds up pretty solid, but sometimes a crackpot or two will slip in there and add something crazy, and it will stay. Anyway, take what the Wikipedia has to say about the Martingale system with a grain of salt.